Here's a chart displaying the variations in the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index around the last five presidential elections (2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020).
The chart shows the index values for each quarter of the election years, providing a view of how the housing market performed in the lead-up to and immediately after these elections.
From the chart above, a few conclusions can be drawn regarding the stability of the housing market during presidential election cycles:
General Stability:
- The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index generally shows stability and a gradual increase in most election years. This suggests that while elections can introduce some uncertainty, the housing market tends to maintain overall stability.
2008 Financial Crisis Impact:
- The 2008 election year is a clear outlier, showing a significant drop in home prices due to the global financial crisis. This decline was more related to broader economic factors than the election itself, highlighting that external economic conditions can have a much larger impact on the housing market than the election cycle alone.
Post-Election Recovery:
- In the years following the financial crisis, such as 2012 and 2016, the housing market shows a steady increase throughout the election year, suggesting a recovery phase. This indicates that, in the absence of broader economic turmoil, the housing market tends to remain resilient during election cycles.
2020 Election Year:
- The 2020 election year shows a continued increase in home prices, despite the uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic. This could be attributed to historically low interest rates and strong demand for housing during that period, again emphasizing that factors beyond the election itself often drive market trends.
In summary, while the housing market can experience some fluctuations during election years, it generally remains stable unless influenced by larger economic events.
No comments:
Post a Comment